New feature: AI Verdicts, the story behind our numbers
A table of probabilities tells you what we think will happen in a race. It doesn’t always tell you why. That’s what our new AI Verdict is for. AI Verdicts are live now on our Daily Race Predictions.
Beneath each predictions table you will now find a short written verdict that summarises our view of the race in plain English. Numbers, especially probabilities, can be hard to interpret, and many of us instead like to think in terms of the story of a race. The AI Verdict aims to provide this kind of narrative.
Here's an example of what it looks like (beneath the predictions table):
The AI Verdict can also convey additional race-specific information which we would not have space to present in the main table, such as notable recent form, jockey/trainer notes and market sentiment (highlighting over/under priced runners).
What it is, and what is isn't
The AI Verdict uses a large language model (LLM), the same kind of technology behind AI chatbots. We’re using it for what it does well: turning information into readable text.
If you're not a fan of AI chat bots, don't worry. We’re not using it to make predictions, and nor do we have plans to. Our predictions come from a combination of statistical modelling and human expertise. That kind of model is sometimes called “AI” too, but it’s a very different tool. It’s built and tested specifically to estimate each runner’s chances from structured race data. LLMs are trained to produce plausible-sounding text, not accurate probabilities. In our view they’re currently not good at predicting horse races.
Our opinion on AI is that using the right AI tool for the right job can be valuable. We intend that the AI Verdict should complement, and not get in the way of, our main race analysis.
Like any AI-generated text, the AI Verdict can make mistakes, so please don’t base decisions on it alone. If you spot something wrong, let us know at strongpromiseracing@gmail.com. We intend to continue improving as we go, adding to the richness of the information it provides and making it generally smarter.
Responsible Betting
While we strive for accuracy, betting always involves risk. We encourage responsible gambling and remind all our followers to bet within their means.
If you ever need support, organisations like GambleAware and GamCare are there to help.
Linda, 57, South West England